OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to measure the predictive value of applicant evaluations for a psychiatry residency in terms of the subsequent performance of those who matriculated in the program. METHOD: The match lists for resident cohorts beginning their course of training over 4 years were divided into thirds, which served as our primary, preresidency measure of expected performance. The preresidency applicant evaluations of those residents who entered were compared to their postresidency evaluations. RESULTS: There was no significant association between preresidency selection evaluations and postresidency final evaluations in any of the four cohorts of trainees. CONCLUSIONS: The overall results of this study of four cohorts of residents indicate only a small, nonsignificant association between pre- and postresidency evaluations. Further efforts to predict residency performance in applicants may help identify those trainees who might benefit from additional monitoring and supervision.