There are two mainstream curricula for international school students at the junior high level: the International Baccalaureate (IB) Middle Years Programme (MYP) and the Cambridge International General Certificate of Secondary Education (IGCSE). The former was developed in the mid-1990s and is currently being relaunched in a 21st-century approach. The latter programme of study was developed by University of Cambridge International Examinations in 1985 and has become popular in recent years among British domestic and international schools worldwide due to the clarity of its learning content. The prevailing uncertainty about which curriculum is best to prepare students for the IB Diploma Programme represents a challenge for international schools. The purpose of the current study is to develop a methodology through causal models which can explain the relationship between student performance in the IGCSE and the Diploma Programme with regard to mathematics and science. The data evaluated here consisted of external examination scores of students who attended a private international high school between the years 2005 and 2012. Two structural equation models were developed. The first model employed a maximum likelihood estimation, while the second model used a Bayesian estimation with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Both models fit the data well. The evidence suggests that the IGCSE provides a good foundational preparation for the Diploma Programme in mathematics and science.