ERIC Number: ED392405
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1996-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Forecasting the VCR: A Retrospective Assessment of Media Trade Press and Academic Forecasts of Its Impact on Broadcasting.
Napoli, Philip M.
Retrospective technology assessment (RTA) is the use of historical research to assess current and future technology issues. This paper uses the introduction of the videocassette recorder (VCR) as an RTA case study, focusing on the broadcasting and advertising trade presses and their forecasts of the VCR's potential impact on broadcasting. Trade press forecasts are compared with forecasts in academic journals in order to have a comparative basis for judging accuracy; analysis is conducted from the perspective of technology forecasting theory and methodology. Evaluation of this material led to the following conclusions: (1) analysis of the forecasts supports existing forecasting theory, demonstrating that an integrated analysis of technological capabilities with social factors such as economics and consumer preferences improves forecasting accuracy; (2) the advertising trade press was much more active and accurate than the broadcasting trade press in forecasting the impact of the VCR; and (3) the academic community appeared more accurate than either the broadcasting or advertising trade press in forecasting the future of the VCR. (Contains 77 references.) (Author/AEF)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Retrospective Analysis; Trade Journals
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Convention of the Broadcast Education Association (41st, Las Vegas, NV, April 14, 1996).