ERIC Number: ED367720
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1994-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Estimating Future Teacher Supply: An Application of Survival Analysis.
The purpose of this study was to examine whether teachers' personal attributes and school characteristics predict differences in the career patterns of teachers and, if so, to explore the implications for teacher supply. The sample was composed of 786 current and former teachers identified in 1986 through the Teaching Supplement Questionnaire of the fifth follow-up of the National Longitudinal Study of 1972. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics and survival analysis. Data analysis showed that many of the beginning teachers left teaching in the early years of their careers. Science and English teachers were most likely to leave. Teachers who had a master's degree or who had graduated from 5-year teacher education programs tended to stay longer; those with higher beginning salaries tended to stay longer than those with lower salaries; and private school teachers were more likely to leave than public school teachers. Elementary school teachers were more likely to stay than secondary school teachers, and teachers who were more satisfied with teaching stayed in teaching longer than those who were less satisfied. Policy implications for teacher supply and teacher education and recommendations for further research are suggested. Three tables and 14 figures are included. (Contains 46 references.) (Author/SLD)
Descriptors: Career Change, Elementary School Teachers, Elementary Secondary Education, Estimation (Mathematics), Faculty Mobility, Institutional Characteristics, Private Schools, Public Schools, Satisfaction, Secondary School Teachers, Statistical Analysis, Teacher Attitudes, Teacher Background, Teacher Characteristics, Teacher Persistence, Teacher Recruitment, Teacher Salaries, Teacher Supply and Demand
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: National Longitudinal Study High School Class 1972; Survival Analysis
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (New Orleans, LA, April 4-8, 1994).