ERIC Number: ED337570
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1991-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Comparing Actual and Predicted Dropout Rates To Evaluate Program Effectiveness. Publication No. 90.19.
Frazer, Linda; Ligon, Glynn
This paper describes a methodology for the evaluation of dropout prevention programs, for calculating dropout rates, and for comparing alternative programs equitably. A first step involves developing a hierarchy of criteria for evaluating programs. These criteria are used to obtain dropout risk probability for individuals and groups and types of groups. Modifications are made to determine dropout rates by separate grade span, by semester, and by individual campus. These methods are used with data from various Austin (Texas) Independent School District files and studies. Results indicate that recalculation of dropout rates for students in grades 9 through 12 and for students in grades 7 through 8 shows that an original calculation, which groups these students together, over-predicts the number of dropout for middle school and under-predicted the number of dropouts for high school. Results also show that dropout rates differ if calculated separately for spring and fall. The methodology permits the development of charts to compare programs to themselves over time or to compare programs with each other at specific points in time. The report contains six figures, three attachments providing examples of the kinds of charts the methodology permits, and four references. (JB)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Researchers; Administrators; Policymakers; Practitioners
Authoring Institution: Austin Independent School District, TX. Office of Research and Evaluation.
Identifiers: Austin Independent School District TX
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (Chicago, IL, April 3-7, 1991).