ERIC Number: ED336029
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1991-May
Reference Count: N/A
Concern about Forecasts of National Faculty Shortages and the Importance of Local Studies. AIR 1991 Annual Forum Paper.
Chatman, Steve; Jung, Loren
This paper questions whether there is sufficient evidence, as presented in the popular press, to support special action to increase the supply of college and university faculty. The higher education popular press has published several forecasts of faculty shortages due to the mass retirement of expansion era faculty and the forecasted low numbers of doctoral graduates. These forecasts of national shortages encouraged a local study of faculty attrition in a four-campus university system. The local study considered factors not accounted for in national studies but important locally: whether disciplinary field of study or campus location (urban or rural) has been associated with faculty attrition in the recent past and should therefore be considered when modeling demand for new faculty. Discipline and institution location were found to have no significant effect on the likelihood of faculty to continue employment from year to year when faculty age was controlled. Although the retirement rate was expected to increase, no evidence of massed retirements producing an increased demand for new faculty was found. The lack of forecasted increases in demand for faculty locally lead to a reconsideration of national forecast studies, especially when it was determined that the age distribution of faculty across system campuses was similar to faculty nationwide. Contains 24 references. (Author)
Publication Type: Information Analyses; Speeches/Meeting Papers; Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Administrators; Practitioners
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: AIR Forum
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (31st, San Francisco, CA, May 26-29, 1991).