**ERIC Number:**ED333018

**Record Type:**RIE

**Publication Date:**1990

**Pages:**43

**Abstractor:**N/A

**Reference Count:**N/A

**ISBN:**N/A

**ISSN:**N/A

A Freshman Admissions Prediction Equation: An Evaluation and Recommendation.

Chou, Tungshan; Huberty, Carl J.

The effectiveness of the freshman admissions prediction equation (FAPE) at the University of Georgia (Athens) was studied, using data for 3,378 freshman (1,490 males and 1,888 females) in 1987-88. For the 1987-88 data, a previous (1982) prediction equation functioned poorly in terms of predictive accuracy. New prediction models were constructed using multiple regression techniques and analyzed in terms of: mean residual (average prediction error), mean absolute residual (average value of absolute prediction errors), standard deviation of the residuals (standard deviation of prediction errors), and misclassification rates (proportion of students who did and did not perform acceptably given that they were predicted not to and to do well, respectively). The predictors used include: verbal and mathematics scores on the Scholastic Aptitude Test, high school grade point average, gender, race, and high school grouping. The 1986-87 data for 3,177 freshmen (1,353 males and 1,824 females) were used to validate the effectiveness of two prediction models. Inclusion of gender, race, and high school grouping did not improve the predictive accuracy in terms of mean absolute residual, residual standard deviation, and misclassification rates; however, some improvement in reducing the mean residual was observed. Since some previous studies show that the effectiveness of predictors varies with institutional characteristics, the construction/implementation of the prediction model should consider gender, race, and high school grouping factors. Two ways of increasing a prediction equation's utility, and recommendations for FAPE users are proposed. Eleven tables, one graph, and an 18-item list of references are included. (RLC)

Descriptors: College Entrance Examinations, College Freshmen, Decision Making, Equations (Mathematics), Grade Point Average, Grouping (Instructional Purposes), Higher Education, Mathematical Models, Predictive Measurement, Predictive Validity, Predictor Variables, Racial Differences, Sex Differences

**Publication Type:**Reports - Research

**Education Level:**N/A

**Audience:**N/A

**Language:**English

**Sponsor:**N/A

**Authoring Institution:**N/A

**Identifiers:**Freshman Admissions Prediction Equation; Scholastic Aptitude Test; University of Georgia