ERIC Number: ED329572
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1990-Nov
Reference Count: N/A
Membership Projections for South Carolina Schools 1991 through 1996.
Ward-Besser, Gail; Brigman, Sue H.
Membership projections are presented for South Carolina schools (excluding South Carolina Youth Services, Palmetto Unified, Felton Laboratory School, and South Carolina School for the Deaf and Blind) for the period 1991 through 1996. Membership projections are calculated annually using average daily membership (ADM) (enrollment) in conjunction with the cohort-survival procedure to give insight into trends within the state and individual school districts. Because of rounding, the sum of projections by grade may not equal the district total, and the sum of district totals may differ from state results. By the 1995-96 school year, the ADM for kindergarten through grade 12 in the South Carolina public schools is projected to reach 663,100, an increase of 49,900 (8.1%) over the 1989-90 school year, which will result from an expected average growth of about 8,300 each year. This projected increase is largely due to the rising number of live births in the state, net in-migration, student transfers from private schools, and student retentions. Specific projections for 1990-91 through 1995-96 show that: membership in kindergarten through grade 6 will continue to increase; membership in grades 7 and 8 will increase; membership in grades 9 through 12 will continue to decrease through 1990-91 and then increase each successive year; membership in 32 districts will decline; membership in 33 districts will increase consistently; membership in 25 districts will show some increases; membership in one district will stay constant; and membership in private schools will remain at the 1989-90 level. Caution is warranted because these projections depend on the constancy of cohort-survival ratios. Seven figures and 12 data tables are included. (SLD)
Descriptors: Average Daily Membership, Birth Rate, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Trends, Predictive Measurement, Public Schools, School Demography, School District Size, School Statistics, State Surveys, Statistical Data, Tables (Data), Trend Analysis
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: South Carolina State Dept. of Education, Columbia. Office of Research.
Identifiers: South Carolina