ERIC Number: ED328134
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1990-Oct
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting Enrollment in a Period of Institutional Transition. AIR Conference Paper.
Thorpe, Stephen W.
This paper describes an enrollment forecasting model that was developed in 1988 by the Office of Institutional Research for a small, private, liberal arts college (Wesley College, Delaware). The college, shifting in demographics from its historical junior college mission to that of a comprehensive baccalaureate institution, required a forecasting model that took into account this transition of student enrollment from a college providing largely associate and transfer degree programs to one that provides baccalaureate degree programs. An explanation is provided of the model's development and use and includes the assumptions that were required for projecting the composition of the 1988-89 and 1989-90 academic year enrollment. In addition, statistics are provided showing the forecast's enrollment projection error rates and the retention percentages per term and by degree program at admittance. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the forecasting model benefitted the college in its budgeting and strategic planning processes. Contains 17 references. (GLR)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Wesley College DE
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Northeastern AIR Conference (14th, Albany, NY, October 21-23, 1990).