ERIC Number: ED326560
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1990-Nov
Reference Count: N/A
School District Enrollment Projections: A Comparison of Three Methods.
Pettibone, Timothy J.; Bushan, Latha
This study assesses three methods of forecasting school enrollments: the cohort-sruvival method (grade progression), the statistical forecasting procedure developed by the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) Institute, and a simple ratio computation. The three methods were used to forecast school enrollments for kindergarten through grade 12 in a rural Tennessee school district. The cohort survival method is based on the calculation of a series of proportions that indicate the fraction of students in one grade in a given year who pass to the next grade; the ratios are averaged across 5 years to obtain the grade progression ratio. The SAS method is a statistical procedure based on extrapolation, and it fits and forecasts a univariate time series. The simple method uses the ratio of the 2 previous years' enrollments for each grade level; this ratio multiplied by the most recent year gives an estimate of expected enrollment for the following year. All three methods are based on the established consistency of the various ratios and variables. Study data included the number of live births and grade level enrollment figures. To test the accuracy of the three methods, the total enrollment obtained by each method was compared with the actual enrollment for the years 1987, 1988, and 1989. The cohort-survival projections were closest to actual enrollments; the next best technique was the simple ratio. One table and two graphs are included. (TJH)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Cohort Survival Ratio Method; Statistical Analysis System
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Mid-South Educational Research Association (19th, New Orleans, LA, November 14-16, 1990).