ERIC Number: ED252340
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1984-Mar
Reference Count: 0
Using Scenarios to Forecast the Future of Camping.
Henderson, Karla A.
The paper describes methods and results which were obtained when systematically identifying important aspects of the future of organized camping, through the combination of "expert" opinion as well as "grassroots" input. The futures forecasting technique used was scenario writing, a well-thought story to describe a future state of affairs. Four perspectives on the future were written regarding conservative, humanistic, pessimistic, and optimistic views of the future of organized camping. A random sample of 270 camp directors were invited to respond to questions about the four scenarios. The respondents were asked to read the scenarios and answer several brief questions about their reaction to the stories. The 95 respondents included 42% who were affiliated with agency camps, 16% affiliated with church camps, and 33% with private independent camps. Sixty-five percent of the respondents represented resident camps with 12% involved in day camping, and 19% involved in both. The scenario which the directors said was most likely to occur was the conservative view to which 44% responded. The optimistic view received 39%, with humanistic and pessimistic receiving 7% and 4% respectively. The optimistic scenario was chosen to be the ideal for the next 10-15 years. The appendix contains the four scenarios. (ERB)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Optimism; Pessimism; Scenario Writing; Scenarios
Note: Paper presented at the American Camping Association Convention (San Diego, CA, February 27-March 3, 1984).