ERIC Number: ED247186
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983
Reference Count: 0
Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24.
Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.
This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social, economic, political, and geographical background factors need to be considered in conducting a political risk analysis; (3) forecast the likelihood of a change in regime, occurrence of political turmoil, or restrictions on international business; and (4) calculate risk ratings that can be used to compare the relative risks in different countries. The methods presented are those developed by the authors for Frost and Sullivan's "World Political Risk Forecast," which uses country studies produced by experts. An annotated bibliography and sample country study on Egypt (1983) from Frost and Sullivan's service are included in the appendices, which comprise over half the document. In addition, students are provided with Prince charts (a system for making political forecasts and devising strategies), decision structure charts, a description of risk ratings for three business sectors, a summary of an 18-month forecast, and a worksheet for calculations. (LH)
Descriptors: Annotated Bibliographies, Charts, Comparative Analysis, Decision Making, Higher Education, International Relations, Learning Modules, Measurement Techniques, Political Influences, Prediction, Predictive Measurement, Risk, Tables (Data)
Policy Studies Associates, P.O. Box 337, Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520 ($5.75).
Publication Type: Guides - Classroom - Learner
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Policy Studies Associates, Croton-on-Hudson, NY.
Identifiers: Egypt; Political Analysis; Prince System; World Political Risk Forecast