ERIC Number: ED239551
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-Nov
Reference Count: 0
An Approach to Quantitative Fiscal Planning. Phase I Report.
Gaylord, Thomas A.
The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive fiscal planning model: revenues, expenditures, programs, facilities, local needs, and environmental constraints (political, legal, economic, and human resource requirements). Attention is focused on the first phase of this quantitative fiscal planning research project: the time-series analysis of only revenue submodel components. Phase one also involved outlining a general procedure to derive nongeneral fund revenue submodel components for the University of Alaska system, and developing time-series funding years 1984 and 1985 nongeneral fund revenue component projects at the BRU level. Comparative data on original and projected revenues are analyzed. Conclusions include the following: objective methods are more accurate than subjective methods, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods, and the superiority of objective and causal methods increases as the forecast horizon increases. (SW)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Alaska State Dept. of Education. Statewide Office of Budget Development.
Identifiers: Time Series Analysis; University of Alaska