ERIC Number: ED239378
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-Apr
Reference Count: 0
Seattle's Small-Area Approach to Forecasting Enrollments at the School Level.
Bernhardt, Victoria L.; And Others
The issues of achieving school desegregation and providing programs for students with special needs, while at the same time facing enrollment declines, have forced school administrators to improve techniques for projecting demand. This paper describes a new procedure that combines forecasting of enrollments and management of facilities and that has been successfully implemented for the Seattle, Washington, Public Schools. The Seattle system prepares its forecasts for a relatively small local unit called the "small planning unit" containing from 50-100 students each. Five-year projections are prepared for each small area, and are then aggregated to prepare forecasts for large geographical areas and for attending schools. Advantages to this approach claimed for planners are that (1) it allows for easier simulation of policy alternatives, (2) small units provide a welcome sensitivity to neighborhood activity, and (3) the use of small-area forecasts allows continuous refinement of the models in response to actual results. Some results are reported that support the planning technique. The mathematical procedures for the forecasting model used with small planning units are in the appendix. (MLF)
Descriptors: Attendance, Computer Oriented Programs, Declining Enrollment, Educational Facilities Planning, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Linear Programing, Mathematical Models, Regression (Statistics), Research Methodology, Research Problems, Residential Patterns, School Closing, School Demography, School Desegregation, School Districts, School Holding Power
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Researchers; Administrators; Practitioners
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Markov Processes; Seattle Public Schools WA; Small Planning Units
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (Montreal, Quebec, Canada, April 11-15, 1983).