ERIC Number: ED238444
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-Oct
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting Library Futures: Participative Decisionmaking with a Microcomputer Model. Background Paper. Workshop 3.
Mason, Thomas R.; Newton, Evan
This paper describes the use of a microcomputer model program to predict library collection growth at Cornell University, particularly in Olin Library, which is Cornell's central research facility. The possible effects of increased online information retrieval and microform or videodisc usage on library storage needs are also briefly discussed. A graph based on simple extrapolation of historical data illustrates Olin's increasing growth rate for nonbook items and decreasing growth rate for classified bound print volumes from 1973 to 2002. A table then presents annual historical data and projections to the year 2002 for Olin's gross acquisitions, items withdrawn, net volumes added, total classified volumes, number of volumes transferred to annex storage, number of volumes stored on-campus, linear feet of archive space, number of microform items, number of maps and other nonbook items, and total number of book and nonbook items. Appended tables show Olin's historical and projected ratios of growth rates and data converted from item counts to volume equivalents using the State University of New York (SUNY) equivalency factors. A summary table shows projected library collection size and stack floor area requirements for all 15 Cornell libraries from FY 1982 to 2002. Based on model projections, it is concluded that stock/storage space will have to be increased by over 50% by 2002. (ESR)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Media Staff; Practitioners
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Cornell University NY; Library Statistics; Printed Materials
Note: Background paper for Workshop 3 of the Fall Conference of the Association for Institutional Research in the Upper Midwest (AIRUM) (11th, Rochester, MN, October 6-7, 1983).