ERIC Number: ED232602
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-May
Reference Count: 0
Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.
Heydinger, Richard B.
A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background information. However, instead of a single assumption for each variable, assumptions are forced to vary across a feasible set of alternatives. As a planning aid, this approach forces individuals to be integrative in their thinking and to recognize that the future is unpredictable. The sample scenarios were constructed from an input-process-external model. Direct inputs include: funds (research funds, state and local financial support, private sources, and student aid), facilities, enrollment, and faculty. Process factors include public policy regarding higher education, internal academic governance, and values of students. External factors include the following: economy, computation and communication, demand for research and instructional programs, societal reactions to higher education, competition from other segments of postsecondary education, and the regulatory climate. (SW)
Publication Type: Opinion Papers; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: AIR Forum; Scenarios
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (23rd, Toronto, Ontario, May 23-26, 1983).