ERIC Number: ED227835
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Nov
Reference Count: 0
Educational Forecasting Methodologies: State of the Art, Trends, and Highlights.
Hudson, Barclay; Bruno, James
This overview of both quantitative and qualitative methods of educational forecasting is introduced by a discussion of a general typology of forecasting methods. In each of the following sections, discussion follows the same general format: a number of basic approaches are identified (e.g. extrapolation, correlation, systems modelling), and each is described in terms of the techniques associated with its particular approach and its potential usefulness for educational planning purposes. In addition, examples of typical applications to educational planning and relevant literature references are provided for each method. Both deterministic and probabilistic (Stochastic) quantitative methods are included, with many specific techniques described including trend analysis, time series analysis, regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, econometric modelling, input/output modelling, linear programming modelling, Bayesian analysis, logit analysis, cohort analysis, and Markov chains. Qualitative methods discussed include Delphi, precursor analysis, scenario construction, morphological analysis, cross-impact analysis, and compass techniques. A brief discussion of three major trends in forecasting as applied to educational planning--increasing importance of qualitative methods, concern with the design of alternative futures, and the education of forecasters--concludes the report. A 6-page reference list is included, as well as a typology of the various methods in chart form. (LMM)
Publication Type: Information Analyses
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).
Identifiers: Qualitative Analysis; Quantitative Analysis; Sensitivity Analysis; Systems Modeling; Time Series Analysis
Note: Paper prepared for the World Future Studies Foundation, Rome, Italy.