ERIC Number: ED225495
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1982-Oct
Reference Count: 0
A Model for Predicting Student Credit Hours. SAIR Conference Paper.
Gravely, Archer R.; Strenglein, Denise
A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment caps. The model may also be useful for estimating SCH reductions due to increased admission standards or more restrictive changes in the eligibility requirements for federal student aid programs. Components of the model include: mean SCH by course level; student type; and retention rate by student type over time. The predicted SCH means and retention rates were developed from a 50 percent random cohort sample of the 4,696 new University of South Florida student population from 1976 to 1980. The cohort groups were based on entering term. The remaining half of the student population was used to validate the model. For all student types combined, the predicted SCH was approximately two percent greater than the actual SCH generated. Statistical tables provide the SCH means and retention rates for each cohort group (fall, winter, spring, summer) by student type for eight terms, along with validation results. (SW)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: SAIR Conference; University of South Florida
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Southern Association for Institutional Research (Birmingham, AL, October 28-29, 1982).