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ERIC Number: ED219047
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1982-May
Pages: 19
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
The Two Post-Industrialisms and Higher Education. ASHE Annual Meeting 1982 Paper.
Marien, Michael
World Future Society Bulletin, May/Jun 1982
The state of future studies and the significance of futures thinking for higher education are considered. It is suggested that the future studies arena is not very large or well-organized and that it has not been growing, in part because it does not fit well into academe. Basic themes of future studies are described as an axis of contention between two visions of post-industrial society: one characterized as a high-technology service or information society; the other as a more decentralized ecologically-oriented, and self-reliant society. These two post-industrialisms are outlined in four charts and an appendix of selected readings. An additional chart describes four states of society and four corresponding states of higher education: (1) an extrapolation of long-term trends resulting in a flourishing economy and higher education remaining essentially unchanged in structure and processes; (2) a stagnant or worsening economy, with business and technical studies dominating the campus; (3) a major war or depression resulting in campuses closed, incinerated, or converted to housing for refugees or felons--higher learning unable to adapt; and (4) a widespread admission of an ignorant society where learning needs have outdistanced attainments, with universities becoming the center of the conscious search for new paradigms, more adult and part-time learners and less credit and credentials, correction of biases in professional schools toward big technology and overly hierarchic services, and a center for integrative future studies on every campus. The two positive scenarios (numbers one and four), reflecting the positive realization of the two post-industrialisms, are given a probability of 10 percent each, and the two negative scenarios have a probability of 40 percent each. (Author/SW)
World Future Society, 4916 St. Elmo Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814-5089 ($3.50).
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Collected Works - Serials; Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: ASHE Annual Meeting
Note: Based on a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Higher Education (Washington, DC, March 2-3, 1982).