ERIC Number: ED207369
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1981
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting and Maximizing Post-Secondary Futures: Dilemmas Over Negative Futures and Their Hidden Costs.
Hoffman, Benjamin B.
Forecasting models for maximizing postsecondary futures and applications of the model are considered. The forecasting of broad human futures has many parallels to human futures in the field of medical prognosis. The concept of "exasperated negative" is used to refer to the suppression of critical information about a negative future with the consequences being a greatly increased destructive impact on the individual and the individual's investment in that negative future. An application of this forecasting approach is the use of profile groupings of high school graduates to characterize their probabilities for success. An extensive historical data base contains such items as the characteristics and track records of the profile groups, regions, programs, and institutions. The model brings together the supply and demand sides for plans and simulates the successful outcomes. Negative futures are then resimulated and if the personal motivational index supports a second choice plan, reallocation is achieved. Application of the maximizer approach was undertaken in four Manitoba high schools. Students were allowed to play through the planning experience of 10 highly repetitive case studies. Students attempted to make decisions for their case, and the data were entered into an interactive terminal for comparison with other candidates and a simulation of the probabilities of achieving one of the successful plan outcomes. Group discussion was also integrated into the process. Implications of the project are considered. (SW)
Descriptors: Career Choice, College Choice, Computer Oriented Programs, Databases, Decision Making, Expectation, Failure, Foreign Countries, Futures (of Society), High School Students, Higher Education, Information Utilization, Models, Outcomes of Education, Prediction, Relevance (Education), Student Characteristics, Student Educational Objectives, Success
Publication Type: Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: For related document, see HE 013 686. Model may not reproduce well.