ERIC Number: ED203523
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1981-Apr
Reference Count: 0
Predicting School Board Member Incumbent Defeat.
Lutz, Frank W.; Hunt, Brook P.
Researchers attempted to predict the defeat of school board incumbents, using variables which had already been shown to account for incumbent defeat in statistical analyses performed after board elections in many different states. A global model was constructed based on 20 social, economic, and political variables as well as on school districts' assessed valuations, average daily membership, tax rates, number of challengers, and number of incumbents retiring or running. Preliminary tests on a stratified random sample of 95 Ohio school districts showed that the global model successfully accounted for past incumbent defeats in 1975. The same model, however, failed to predict 1977 incumbent defeats in the same districts. These results suggest that such global models are not useful in predicting incumbent defeat in particular district elections. Instead, more specific models must be used for individual districts. (Author/RW)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Incumbent Defeat; Ohio
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (Los Angeles, CA, April 13-17, 1981).