ERIC Number: ED202393
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1981-Apr
Reference Count: 0
Arkansas Public High School Graduates, Projections to 1996-97.
Spencer, Tom; Brenske, Deborah
Projections to 1996-97 concerning Arkansas public high school graduates are examined. The state and county projections were prepared as a basic resource for institutions such as colleges and universities. Various considerations in projecting high school graduates are considered, including use of the Cohort Survival Technique, the importance of accuracy and comparability of data used as the base for projections, the problem of data availability for private schools, migration of students, fluctuations in the economy, stability of the survival rates, and increasing margins of errors as the number of years being predicted increases. Projections of high school graduates for Arkansas from sources other than the Arkansas Department of Higher Education (ADHE) are presented. These include projections from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Arkansas State University (Jonesboro), the University or Arkansas (Fayetteville), the the Arkansas Department of Education, and the Industrial Research and Extension Center. The ADHE state projections include increasing numbers of high school graduates in 1979-80 to a peak in 1981-82, followed by rather dramatic declines in 1985-86, followed by a momentary increase in 1988-89, another decline in 1990-91, and a somewhat erratic increase in 1996-97. These projections for the state show less percentage decline in high school graduates projected than were projected for the United States as a whole in the WICHE projections. (SW)
Descriptors: College Bound Students, College Planning, County School Districts, Data Analysis, Educational Demand, Enrollment Projections, High School Graduates, Higher Education, Prediction, Predictive Measurement, State Colleges, State Surveys, Statistical Analysis
Arkansas State Department of Higher Education, 1301 West Seventh Street, Little Rock, AR 72201.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Arkansas State Dept. of Higher Education, Little Rock.
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