ERIC Number: ED192963
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1980-Aug-20
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting Repeat Child Abuse from Initial Social Worker Reports: A Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Comparison.
Padgitt, Steven; Gibbs, Leonard
Since the phenomenon of reabuse is postulated as being more probable after initial child abuse than is the probability of an initial abuse and since only modest inquiry has been directed at this phenomenon, research was conducted to answer two questions: Is there patterning to reabuse? And if so, is this different in metro and nonmetro environments? Data were derived from the official Wisconsin Central Registry of Child Abuse reports for January/1973 - May/1978, during which time a very structured instrument was used for 10,666 reports. General variable areas investigated were geographical environment, abuse incident characteristics, demographic characteristics, and case management by the social worker. Of the certain or legally established cases, 2,439 (56.5%) were metro and 1,874 (43.5%) were nonmetro cases. This constituted an averaged annual abuse rate of 48.3 metro and 54.1 nonmetro per 100,000 children. Retained for analysis were 310 reports (152 metro/158 nonmetro) where reabuse had occured and had been recorded. This constituted an averaged annual reabuse rate of 0.30 metro and 0.46 nonmetro per 100,000 children. It was concluded that there was patterning but not very strong and that the patterning was somewhat different in metro/nonmetro areas. It was also concluded that the model developed for forecasting was only slightly better than chance. (AN)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Nonmetropolitan Areas; Wisconsin
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Rural Sociological Society (Ithaca, NY, August 20-23, 1980). Best copy available.