ERIC Number: ED185110
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-Sep
Reference Count: 0
What Can Policy Analysis Add to Evaluation Research?: Predictive Modeling and Policy Optimization.
Nagel, Stuart S.
Policy analysis, or policy study, is defined as the study of the nature, causes, and effects of alternative public policies; sometimes policy analysis refers to specific methods used. Two new developments associated with policy analysis are discussed. One is the concern for deducing the effects of alternative policies before they are adopted, as contrasted to the traditional approach of evaluating policies before-and-after they have been adopted. Deductive modeling might be based on models of group, bilateral, or individual decision making. Examples from the field of criminal justice illustrate these three models. The second development is the concern for determining an optimum policy or combination of policies for achieving a given goal. This evaluative approach can be contrasted with the more common situation in which policies are taken as givens and the researcher attempts to determine the extent to which the desired effects are achieved. Various types of optimizing models are illustrated, again using legal issues as examples, such as determining an optimum policy level: (1) when doing too much or doing too little may be undesirable; (2) when scarce resources need to be allocated; and (3) among discrete alternatives, especially under conditions of uncertainty. (Author/GDC)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Evaluation Research; Policy Analysis; Time Series Analysis
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Evaluation Network (Cincinnati, OH, September 24-26, 1979).