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ERIC Number: ED176085
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-Jan
Reference Count: 0
The Demographic Composition of Cyclical Variations in Employment.
Clark, Kim B.; Summers, Lawrence H.
This paper analyzes the demographic patterns of cyclical swings in the labor market by decomposing movement in employment into changes in unemployment and participation. The focus is on the interrelations among participation, employment and unemployment, with particular emphasis on the participation rate as a prime determinant of the labor market experience of various demographic groups. The first section of the paper briefly reviews the evidence indicating the importance of participation fluctuations. An empirical model is described and several variants are discussed. The second section discusses empirical results for various groups. Differences in labor market experience by age, sex, race, and marital status are considered. From the findings, the importance of the participation rate in affecting the cyclical behavior of both employment and unemployment is concluded. Another finding is that young workers bear a disproportionate share of cyclical fluctuations. The third section analyzes the impact of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment demographic groups. It is concluded that failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effects of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. The fourth and final sections of the paper summarize the conclusions and discuss some of their implications. (JH)
Descriptors: Business Cycles, Demography, Economic Factors, Employment, Employment Patterns, Labor Force Nonparticipants, Labor Market, Models, Participant Characteristics, Research Reports, Unemployment, Work Experience, Youth Employment
National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Department of Labor, Washington, DC.