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ERIC Number: ED174689
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-Apr
Pages: 22
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
Assessing the Impact of Evaluation: A Univariate Time Series Technique.
Shapiro, Jonathan
A statistical definition of information utilization for policy making decisions and an evaluation impact test to determine its occurrence are proposed. A univariate time series analysis is used to identify the internal trend for a given policy output variable and to control its effect. Two problems are identified in implementing an evaluation impact test: sample size and the nature of the time series significance test, which is used to make inferences about a series shift but actually measures goodness-of-fit of the forecasts. Other studies, involving utilization rather than quality as the dependent variable, are cited. Two general classes of evaluation characteristics related to utilization are suggested: political or the nature of the organization which will use the evaluation results and the state-of-the-art in evaluation. It is suggested that utilization might be increased if certain elements were included in evaluations, such as: a statement of the premises on which a program is based; specification of the program's process model; and analysis of the effectiveness of program components or alternative approaches. (MH)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Time Series Analysis
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (63rd, San Francisco, California, April 8-12, 1979)