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ERIC Number: ED174112
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-May
Pages: 13
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
The Use of Multiple Regression and Trend Analysis to Understand Enrollment Fluctuations. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.
Campbell, S. Duke; Greenberg, Barry
The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent variables were used in a stepwise linear regression analysis to explain variance in the total university full-time-equivalent enrollment. Three of the four variables used are presently employed in business forecasting models to account for changes caused by trends, seasonal variations, and cyclical variations. The fourth variable was introduced to account for the opening and operation of a new campus. The model accounts for 99.6 percent of the variation observed in total university enrollments for the past 20 quarters and provides estimates of the enrollment within one percent of the enrollments actually observed. The model also has the potential for making reasonably accurate and reliable short-range enrollment forecasts. The model demonstrated that changes in economic conditions in the county, reflected by changing unemployment rates, correlate significantly and positively with changes in total university enrollment. Total university enrollment did not change from its second to its sixth year of operation except for those changes that could be accounted for by changes in unemployment in the county. The opening and operation of the new campus increased total university enrollment by about six percent. (SC)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: AIR Forum 1979; Florida International University
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (19th, San Diego, California, May 13-17, 1979); Appended data (3 pages) may not reproduce well