ERIC Number: ED174107
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-May
Reference Count: 0
The Search for Better Predictors of Incomes of High School and College Graduates. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.
Witmer, David R.
A search for better predictors of incomes of high school and college graduates is described. The accuracy of the prediction, implicit in the work of John R. Walsh of Harvard University, that the income differences in a given year are good indicators of income differences in future years, was tested by applying standard statistical procedures to data describing the annual incomes of men 25 years old and older during the period 1956 to 1975. Addition of the gross national product in the year prior to the previous equation yields much improved results. Application of Richard B. Freeman's three-equation recursive adjustment model indicates that the starting salaries of college graduates are not good correlates of income differences. Several sets of data from the American Council on Education "Fact Book on Higher Education" were then entered into a series of multiple correlation and regression studies. Studies of the 184 independent variables identified four that, taken together, yield significantly better predictions of future income differences. These factors were: (1) male population 22 years old, 13 years prior; (2) male college graduates at the B.A. and first-professional degree level/male population 29 years old, 11 years prior; (3) male college graduates at the B.A. and first-professional degree level, 14 years prior; and (4) male college graduates at the B.A. and first-professional degree level/male population 29 years old, 14 years prior. However, no theory to explain the connections among these variables is apparent. (SC)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Descriptive; Information Analyses
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: AIR Forum 1979
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (19th, San Diego, California, May 13-17, 1979)