Out-of-wedlock birth rates have not fallen much at all among teenagers. New analyses of existing data sets indicate that becoming an out-of-wedlock parent is a process with three stages: commencement of sexual activity; conception among the sexually active; and pregnancy outcome among those who conceive. Public policy variables such as AFDC benefits, family planning services and abortion availability did not increase the likelihood of sexual intercourse. Teenagers were found likely to make the transition as they become older, if their fathers were poorly educated; if (among non-blacks) they lived on the Pacific Coast; if they were black; and if they were from a more recent birth cohort or a non-intact family. The examination of data regarding pregnancy among the group who were sexually experienced indicated that AFDC benefits did not serve as an economic incentive to childbearing outside of marriage. On the other hand, the impact of liberal family planning and abortion policies is cited in reducing the incidence of out-of-wedlock childbearing. (BN)