Earlier studies of the effect of desegregation on white flight were in conflict, largely because of methodological differences in study design and analysis. More recent studies have used more comparable methodologies and tend to show that under certain conditions desegregation does have a significant effect on white loss, although there is still disagreement on the size and duration of the effect. The present study offers a demographic projection method for estimating the size and duration of the white phenomenon and applies the method to school districts experiencing court-ordered mandatory desegregation. Findings indicate that white losses are such that, in many cases, the amount of desegregation (defined as minority exposure to whites) is declining, and for some districts has fallen below the pre-segregation level. As a result, court-ordered desegregation, coupled with normal demographic trends, is producing increasing ethnic and racial isolation in many larger school districts. If this trend is to be stopped or reversed other remedies need to be considered. Given the strong public opposition to mandatory busing as well as the current legal situation, the prospects for metropolitan desegregation appear limited. On the other hand, voluntary methods have worked well in some cases and may offer a more viable alternative in larger cities. (Author/EB)