ERIC Number: ED161354
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-May
Reference Count: 0
Enrollment Projections When the System Changes. AIR Forum Paper 1978.
Montgomery, David C.
By showing how the addition of three universities to the State University System of Florida affected enrollment projections for the six older universities, a tool was developed that may be of use for enrollment projections in other settings, when the system changes. County population and K-12 school enrollment project reasonably well the undergraduate enrollment of students from those counties not strongly influenced by the new universities, at those universities that are not expanding by virtue of new program addition themselves. Treatment of enrollment from counties influenced by the opening of new universities includes the assumption of "constant relative probability." The projection incorporates the probabilities for attending the new university and for attending the given university before the new one opened. Under sufficiently controlled conditions, the projections give reasonable agreement with observed enrollment changes. (Author/JMD)
Descriptors: College Choice, Educational Change, Educational Demand, Enrollment Influences, Enrollment Projections, Higher Education, Institutional Research, Measurement Techniques, Predictor Variables, Probability, Research Projects, State Universities, Statewide Planning, Statistical Data, Undergraduate Students
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: State Univ. System of Florida, Tallahassee.
Identifiers: State University System of Florida
Note: Paper presented at the annual Association for Institutional Research Forum (18th, Houston, Texas, May 21-25, 1978)