ERIC Number: ED161152
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1977-Nov
Reference Count: 0
Kentucky's Declining School Population.
Davis, B. Glen; Trimble, C. Scott
Kentucky is one of the many states in which enrollment has declined since 1971. This study gathered data on the previous decline and then projected state enrollment up to 1981-82. The cohort-survival technique was used in projections. Numbers of live births and survival ratios were supplied by the Bureau of Vital Statistics. Survival ratios between classes were calculated from data on previous classes. A birth-to-first-grade survival ratio was calculated by dividing the number of first graders in one year by the number of live births six years earlier. This survival ratio was then multiplied by the live births of the years 1971 through 1976 to obtain projected first year enrollments for the school years 1977-78 through 1981-82. Projections of grade 2-12 enrollments were calculated in a similar manner. Graphs show that by 1981-82 enrollment will have declined by about 7.9 percent. If it is assumed that one teacher could adequately instruct 150 students per day, this decline would result in a need for approximately 348 fewer teachers by the 1981-82 school year. Educational planners who do not recognize obvious facts like declining enrollment may be contributing to a taxpayer's revolt. (Author/JM)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Kentucky State Dept. of Education, Frankfort.