ERIC Number: ED158657
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-May
Reference Count: 0
Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts. Texas Postsecondary Educational Institutions, 1978-87. CB Study Paper 27.
Texas Coll. and Univ. System, Austin. Coordinating Board.
Enrollment projections for use in long-range planning for Texas higher education have been updated through the use of alternative methodologies to realistically reflect changing patterns of college enrollment among various age groups and geographic areas of the state. The new forecast predicts an overall gain of l6.9 percent in the state's postsecondary institutions, a marked contrast with the more than 93 percent statewide enrollment growth for the previous decade, with the major portion of growth projected to occur during the first five years. Year-by-year fall enrollment forecasts are presented, including actual headcount for the 1977 fall semester, categorized by type of institution (junior or senior colleges) and type of institutional control (independent or public). Enrollments for each of the public senior colleges and universities are also forecast. The two basic methods used to produce the forecasts, the aggregate population-based forecast and the disaggregate population-based forecast, are summarized. The specific steps, using the "cohort-migration-survival component" methods to make population projections, which is a key element in enrollment forecasts, are outlined, and a table with population by age groups is included. In addition, the method employed to project the individual enrollments for the public senior colleges and universities is indicated. (JMD)
Descriptors: Cohort Analysis, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Rate, Enrollment Trends, Higher Education, Long Range Planning, Population Trends, Private Colleges, State Colleges, State Universities, Statewide Planning, Statistical Analysis, Tables (Data), Two Year Colleges
Coordinating Board, Texas College and University System, LBJ Building, P.O. Box 12788, Austin, Texas 78711
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Texas Coll. and Univ. System, Austin. Coordinating Board.