ERIC Number: ED158406
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978
Reference Count: 0
The Development of Improved Bases for Forecasting School Age Population Throughout Ontario. A Study of Demographic Components.
MacLeod, Betty; And Others
This study presents the results of research concerning Ontario population trends and considers the implications for school-age groups in selected regions and throughout Ontario. Findings indicate that fertility has been declining across Ontario in recent years, especially in urban areas and for women under 20 and over 35. Although Ontario has relatively low mortality rates for most ages, infant mortality remains relatively high. Migration patterns have produced growth principally in urban regions. These three factors--fertility, mortality and migration--determine the population in each school-age group. Factors such as rate of growth of population, ratio of dependent age groups to working age groups, and rate of participation of males and females in the labor force determine the level and kind of education needed in a particular area of the province. All these factors were used to arrive at a number of school population projections. Between 1978 and 1981, the age group 5-13 will experience a decline but will rise again until 1986. Age group 14-17 is expected to decline until 1985. Age group 18-24 will increase to a peak in 1984 when it will begin to decline. (Author/JM)
Descriptors: Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Foreign Countries, Higher Education, Population Trends, Statistical Data, Tables (Data)
Ontario Government Bookstore, 880 Bay Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M7A 1L2 ($4.50; Microfiche of Section C, $2.00)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Ontario Dept. of Education, Toronto.; Ontario Inst. for Studies in Education, Toronto.
Note: Not available in paper copy due to small size of charts and tables