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ERIC Number: ED064302
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1971-May
Pages: 24
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
["The Delphi Technique."]
Macmillan, Thomas T.
The Delphi technique is a method of eliciting and refining group judgments. The procedures used have three features: anonymous response, iteration and controlled feedback, and statistical group response. A series of experiments were initiated at RAND to evaluate the procedures. Upper-class and graduate students were used as subjects and general information of the almanac type as subject matter. The two basic issues examined were: (1) a comparison of face-to-face discussion with the controlled-feedback interaction, and (2) a thorough evaluation of controlled feedback as a technique of improving group estimates. The results indicated that face-to-face discussion tended to make the group estimates less accurate, whereas, the anonymous controlled feedback made the group estimates more accurate. Other results include: (1) the insight gained into the nature of the group information processes, (2) the fact that a meaningful estimate of the accuracy of a group response to a given question can be obtained by combining individual self-ratings of competence on that question into a group rating. It is concluded that the experiments represent a beginning of a field of research that could be called "opinion technology." (Author/CK)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Santa Barbara City Schools, CA.
Identifiers: Delphi Technique
Note: Paper presented at the annual meeting of the California Junior Colleges Associations Committee on Research and Development (Monterey, Calif., May 3-5, 1971)