ERIC Number: ED061635
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1971-Aug
Reference Count: 0
A Critical Look at the Cross Impact Matrix Method. A Research Report.
This paper explains some of the problems with, and their importance to the application of, the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM). The CIM is a research method designed to serve as a heuristic device to enhance a person's ability to think about the future and as an analytical device to be used by planners to help in actually forecasting future occurrences. The author makes no judgment about CIM's usefulness as a heuristic device; but he does fault it as an analytical methodology. He partitions the analytical problems into two categories: (1) theoretical -- including questions about underlying assumptions of the model, the meaning of inputs, the ability of experts to perceive accurately, and the ability of mathematics to handle the inputs; and (2) practical -- including invalid mathematical formulae and questionable use of simulation techniques. Related documents are EA 004 239 and EA 004 241. (Author/RA)
Descriptors: Decision Making, Educational Policy, Mathematical Models, Planning, Policy Formation, Prediction, Public Policy, Research Methodology, Research Tools, Simulation
Syracuse University Research Corporation, Merrill Lane, University Heights, Syracuse, New York 13210
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: National Center for Educational Research and Development (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Syracuse Univ. Research Corp., NY. Educational Policy Research Center.