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ERIC Number: ED048347
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1971-Feb
Pages: 18
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
The Delphi Process: Some Assumptions and Some Realities.
Waldron, James S.
The effectiveness of the Delphi Technique is evaluated in terms of immediate and delayed controlled information feedback (feedback within 5 seconds as compared with a 24-hour delay); and the relationships that exist among measures of integrative complexity, estimations about the time of occurrence of future events, and time delay between task completion and the reception of controlled feedback. Experimental procedures, hypotheses, and findings are discussed as they relate to these variables. Three major conclusions drawn from the results of the study include: (1) individual integrative complexity is strongly predictive of performance on the tasks of making time estimates of occurrence of remote future events, and changing those estimates in light of controlled information feedback; (2) individual integrative complexity is consistently predictive of convergence; and (3) differential time delay of information feedback has a significant effect on the performance of individuals involved in the Delphi process. The assumption that the phenomenon of convergence in the direction of a "correct solution" is a product of objectivity relatively free from the interference of certain psychological variables is considered unfounded. It is also contended that non-objective factors are as reflective of outcomes in a Delphi exercise as they are in direct confrontation group outcomes. The interrelatedness of time delay variables and performance in the Delphi process is considered. A bibliography is included. (AE)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Delphi Technique
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, New York, New York, February 4-7, 1971