ERIC Number: ED044146
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1969-Jan-20
Reference Count: 0
A Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information-Processing Technology. Final Report.
Bernstein, George B.
This study developed a variation of the DELPHI approach, a polling technique for systematically soliciting opinions from experts, to produce a technological forecast of developments in the information-processing industry. SEER (System for Event Evaluation and Review) combines the more desirable elements of existing techniques: (1) intuitive (consensus and individual forecasting), (2) trend extrapolation, (3) trend correlation analysis, and (4) normative approach. Application of this approach, oriented toward user requirements, indicated no gaps in hardware technology, but in application of technology to user needs. Four areas to be stressed in total communication, based on all man/machine relationships, are: (1) user satisfaction, (2) standardization of procedures, equipment, software and data elements, (3) the machine as an extension of man, and (4) new organization of machine systems. SEER forecasting permitted the utilization of information not generated by the user and identifies alternatives to facilitate executive decision-making, planning and resource allocation. (AB)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Naval Supply Systems Command, Washington, DC.
Identifiers: DELPHI Technique; System for Event Evaluation and Review