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ERIC Number: ED020153
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1967
Pages: 154
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
A FORECASTING MODEL OF MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS IN THE HEALTH OCCUPATIONS.
MAKI, DENNIS R.
REPORTED IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL, OR CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, TO BE USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE NATURE OF THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR HEALTH MANPOWER. THE MODEL IS DESIGNED TO PREDICT, UNDER CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS, THE DEMAND, SUPPLY, EXCESS DEMAND, AND EMPLOYMENT OF HEALTH PERSONNEL FOR SOME PERIOD IN THE FUTURE. THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENT FORECASTS OF THE MODEL ARE BASED ON THE ECONOMIST'S CONCEPT OF DEMAND, RATHER THAN ON THE "NEED" CONCEPT WHICH HAS BEEN COMMONLY USED IN MAKING FORECASTS IN THE PAST. THE MODEL AS PRESENTLY DEVELOPED IS RECURSIVE IN DESIGN AND IS APPLICABLE FOR FORECASTS OF FIVE TO 15 YEARS INTO THE FUTURE. THE DOCUMENT PRESENTS (1) THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL, (2) INFORMATION ON THE DEMAND FOR HEALTH SERVICES, (3) A DISCUSSION OF THE COEFFICIENTS AND THE CONSTRAINTS USED IN THE OPERATION OF THE MODEL, (4) THE TESTING OF THE MODEL INCLUDING THE FORECASTS MADE ON EMPLOYMENT FOR 20 SELECTED HEALTH OCCUPATIONS FOR THE YEAR 1960 (KNOWN DATA AVAILABLE), AND (5) THE EVALUATION AND COMPARISON OF THE ESTIMATES OF THE MODEL TO THE KNOWN DATA. THE USEFULNESS OF THE MODEL AS A POLICY TOOL AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH IN OTHER FIELDS AS WELL AS IN HEALTH OCCUPATIONS ARE INDICATED. (DS)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Iowa State Univ. of Science and Technology, Ames. Industrial Relations Center.
Identifiers: N/A