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ERIC Number: ED016291
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1967-Jan-20
Pages: 17
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
METHODS OF PROJECTING BIRTHS.
OKADA, TETSUO
THIS NOTE DESCRIBES AND CRITICIZES THE VARIOUS METHODS CURRENTLY IN USE FOR PROJECTING BIRTHS--(1) COHORT-FERTILITY, (2) AGE-SPECIFIC, (3) COHORT-FERTILITY (SCRIPPS), AND (4) MARRIAGE-PARITY-PROGRESSION. VARIABLES USED IN THE VARIOUS METHODS ARE AGE OF MOTHER, COMPLETED FERTILITY, MARRIAGE STATUS, TIME SINCE MARRIAGE, PARITY, AND BIRTH INTERVAL. THE COHORT-FERTILITY METHOD EMPHASIZES THE ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY IN TERMS OF SUCCESSIVE GENERATIONS OF WOMEN AS THEY ACHIEVE CERTAIN AGE LEVELS DURING THEIR CHILDBEARING YEARS. THE AGE-SPECIFIC METHOD USES AGE OF WOMEN AS ITS ONLY VARIABLE. THE SCRIPPS COHORT-FERTILITY REFINES THE COHORT-FERTILITY METHOD BY CONSIDERING THE PROPORTION OF WOMEN MARRIED BY AGE GROUP. THE MARRIAGE-PARITY-PROGRESSION SEQUENTIALLY ESTIMATES MARRIAGES, FIRST BIRTHS, AND EACH SUBSEQUENT BIRTH BY A SCHEME OF ACTUARIALLY COMPUTED PROBABILITIES OF MARRYING AND OF BEARING CHILDREN OF EACH SUCCESSIVELY HIGHER ORDER. AN OVERVIEW IS GIVEN OF RECENT TRENDS IN BIRTH PROJECTION MODELING EFFORTS AND NEW APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM OF PREDICTING FERTILITY. (HW)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Educational Statistics (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.
Identifiers: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA