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ERIC Number: ED016132
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1965-Sep
Pages: 202
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTION OF OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS IN THE DENVER STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA.
FISHMAN, LESLIE; AND OTHERS
THE FINAL STAGE OF A PROGRAM FOR ACHIEVING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LABOR IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES INTO OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PROJECTIONS OF OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS BY INDUSTRY. THIS CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE, AND PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR OCCUPATIONAL GUIDANCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF LONGER-RUN TRAINING PROGRAMS. THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO EXPLORE METHODS TO ACCOMPLISH THESE OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTIONS FOR A SUB-AREA OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY. THE STUDY PROVIDES A GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF HOW THE NATIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND OCCUPATIONAL MATRICES MIGHT THEORETICALLY BE APPLIED TO A SPECIFIC STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (SMSA) AND DETAILS THE DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FOR AN SMSA OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTION. TWO NAIVE MODELS OF OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTION WERE DEVELOPED AND EVALUATED. FOUR MORE SOPHISTICATED MODELS WERE DEVELOPED AND COMPARED TO THE NAIVE MODELS. IT WAS FOUND THAT ALL WILL AGREE ON THE ESTIMATIONS, IF THE ASSUMPTIONS ARE MADE CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER, BECAUSE THEY ARE ANALYZING THE SAME EXPERIENCE FROM FOUR DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW. A DETAILED DEVELOPMENT OF ONE MODEL IS DISCUSSED IN TERMS OF--(1) THE INDUSTRY-OCCUPATION MATRIX, (2) THE INDUSTRY-PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, (3) THE OUTPUT-TIME RELATIONS, AND (4) THE INTEGRATION OF THESE PHASES INTO THE COMPLETE MODEL. (HC)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Colorado Univ., Boulder. Bureau of Economic Research.
Identifiers: COLORADO; Colorado (Denver)