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ERIC Number: ED012057
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1965
Pages: 39
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY.
SITGREAVES, ROSEDITH
STATISTICAL DECISION-MAKING THEORY PROVIDES A FRAME OF REFERENCE WITHIN WHICH THE COUNSELOR AND CLIENT CAN CONSIDER A WIDE RANGE OF PROBLEMS OF DECISION MAKING. IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY, A SET OF ACTIONS IS AVAILABLE. PREFERENCE AMONG THESE ACTIONS DEPENDS ON THE TRUE STATE OF NATURE WHICH IS GENERALLY UNKOWN. TO GAIN THIS INFORMATION, AN EXPERIMENT CAN BE PERFORMED WHICH WILL YIELD A SET OF DATA. A STRATEGY FOR DECISION MAKING IS A COMPLETE PRESCRIPTION WHICH SPECIFIES THE EXPERIMENT TO BE PERFORMED AND THE TERMINAL DECISION TO BE MADE FOR EACH SET OF DATA COLLECTED. WITH THE USE OF A LOSS TABLE, THE EXPECTED LOSS FOR ANY STRATEGY FOR EACH STATE OF NATURE CAN BE FOUND. COMPARISONS GENERALLY MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO ELIMINATE INADMISSIBLE STRATEGIES. TWO CRITERIA CAN BE EMPLOYED TO SELECT FROM THE REMAINING CLASSES OF ADMISSIBLE STRATEGIES. FIRST IS THE MINIMAX PRINCIPLE WHICH IS BASED ON THE CRITERION OF SELECTING THE STRATEGY FOR WHICH THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED LOSS IS THE SMALLEST. SECOND IS THE BAYES CRITERION WHICH IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE IS A KNOWN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OVER THE STATES OF NATURE AND, THEREFORE, THE EXPECTED RISK OF WRONG DECISIONS CAN BE MINIMIZED BY COMPUTING THE AVERAGE OF THE ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION. THIS ADDRESS WAS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE ON THE TRAINING OF COUNSELORS OF ADULTS (CHATHAM, MAY 22-28, 1965). (RM)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Center for the Study of Liberal Education for Adults, Brookline, MA.; New England Board of Higher Education, Winchester, MA.
Identifiers: Massachusetts (Brookline); Massachusetts (Winchester)