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ERIC Number: ED010094
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1966
Pages: 107
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS TO CONTINUE OR DISCONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION.
EHLING, WILLIAM P.
THE PROBLEM OF THIS EFFORT INVOLVED--(1) THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WORKABLE AND EMPIRICALLY GROUNDED THEORY OF COMMUNICATION AND DECISION-MAKING RELATIVE TO STUDENT TRANSITION FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO COLLEGE, AND (2) THE DESIGN AND EMPIRICAL TESTING BY COMPUTER MANIPULATION OF A FORMAL MODEL TO CHARACTERIZE THIS THEORY, USING THE "MARKOV CHAIN PROCESS." AN EMPIRICAL SETTING, A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, AND TERM DEFINITIONS WERE PROVIDED IN DESCRIBING THE COMMUNICATION-DECISION BEHAVIOR AMONG HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS. GIVEN THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, THE NEXT STEP WAS TO CHOOSE AN "OPTIMAL" STRATEGY (IN RELATION TO THE STATE OF INFORMATION) FOR THE MODEL DESIGN. NEXT, THE "TIME-DEPENDENT" COMMUNICATION BEHAVIOR OF STUDENTS IN RELATION TO THE STATE OF DECISION WAS EXAMINED IN TERMS OF TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS--(1) A COMMUNICATION-DECISION MODEL WITH CONSTANT TRANSITION MATRICES OR INCREMENTAL BEHAVIOR IN A SEQUENCE OVER TIME, AND (2) A MODEL WITH TIME-VARYING PARAMETERS OR TRANSFORMATIONAL INFORMATION OVER TIME. FROM THIS ACTIVITY, A MARKOVAN TIME-VARYING, COMMUNICATION-DECISION MODEL WAS DEVELOPED. A DIGITAL COMPUTER PROGRAM, USING FORTRAN LANGUAGE AND PROVIDING RANDOM OUTPUTS, WAS THEN DEVELOPED FOR MODEL SIMULATION. THE COMPUTER GENERATED A NUMBER OF OUTCOMES WHICH SHOWED HOW LONG IT TOOK A STUDENT TO ARRIVE AT A "DECISION" AND WHAT KIND OF DECISION WAS MADE, NAMELY, TO GO OR NOT GO TO COLLEGE. (JH)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Syracuse Univ., NY.
Identifiers: FORTRAN Programing Language; Markov Processes; New York (Syracuse)